My thinking - it is predictable, but only because the playoff system the NBA has in place actually does its job. There aren't more thugs than any other professional sport other than baseball. They are really good, which is kind of the point, although I can see where this leads back to predictability. During the regular season, starters don't try that hard until the end of games because the season's too long, I'll give that criticism some merit as well. There's no serious contact, because it's basketball, and it's kind of hard to have serious contact in a sport where by definition a foul involves contact. Those of you that prefer college? That's a post for another day. All I'll say is that college basketball is an unwatchable product unless you're a degenerate gambler, in which case it's the best thing you could ever hope for.
The point of all of that is that these NBA playoffs have only been predictable if you've watched the league religiously since you were seven years old (for those who need to know how old I am, that would be 1991). Those of us that have know when a team gets old in a young man's game, that team falls, and falls hard. The Lakers were the favorites entering these playoffs because suckers didn't realize they were old. While no one could predict Pau Gasol would get dumped and play like crap all playoffs (that's what I heard), the rest of the team didn't look as good as last year, while three teams jumped into contendership thanks to free agency signings, trades, and maturity (and all three are still alive, so by definition they are in fact contenders now). Only the Mavericks were ever thought to be contenders before this season. Every changing of the guard in the NBA since 1980 with the exception of the Lakers leapfrogging everybody by drafting Magic (and two years later, Worthy) has involved at least one team of the previous generation getting old. The Pistons won in 1989 and 1990 breaking through because Jordan's Bulls weren't ready and the Lakers and Celtics lost key players due to injury (read: they got old). The Bulls then improved, swept the Pistons in 1991 and beat the Lakers in 5 games in a very convincing title run through the league's 4 previous champions, which sounds good on paper until you realize that both the Lakers and Pistons were old.
The Rockets obviously won in 1994 and 1995 under dubious circumstances involving the NBA's best player trying minor league baseball during his basketball prime (I saw one of Jordan's three home runs for the Barons in person and it was one of the most random cool sporting experiences one could ever have), so we can throw that out. Not to mention, those Rockets teams were pretty good, and it's a shame we didn't get to see them against Jordan's Bulls. My memories might have been tainted by the fact I owned Hakeem the Dream basketball shoes in 4th grade, which saved me probably a thousand dollars over the course of my life as they taught me $140 basketball shoes actually don't help your jump shot.
Of course, the Bulls won three more, meaning they had an eight year, six championship run as the premier team in the league, unlike anything seen in the modern NBA. All other timeframes had two or more real contenders (Lakers/Sixers/Celtics, Lakers/Pistons/Celtics, Bulls, Lakers/Spurs, Pistons/Spurs, Lakers/Celtics). The Bulls were the only team that could win the title in the years that they did. But eventually, they got old, which broke them up far more than infighting with the GM or Phil Jackson not being resigned. They had no more title runs left in them.
Fast forward to 2011. The Spurs, winners of four championships in the post Jordan-era, had the league's best record this season. Traditionally, this would require a great deal of respect from opponents. But the Grizzlies coach, Lionel Hollins, actually tanked games at the end of the season so the Grizzlies would face the Spurs. They did face them, and they won convincingly. Hollins was blasted at the time by the talking heads for publicly disrespecting the great Spurs dynasty, but he deserves a lot of credit for seeing what was becoming increasingly obvious as the playoffs rolled around:
The Spurs were really, truly, painfully old.
Meanwhile, the Lakers, winners of five titles in the post-Jordan era, had trouble dealing with an injury depleted Hornets team, in a series where Chris Paul looked like he might regain his status as the best American point guard in time for the Olympics. That Hornets team was, at best, the 14th best team in the NBA this season. If that didn't forebode the ass-whupping (or evisceration, depending on your level of sophistication) the Mavericks were about to put on the Lakers, I don't know what would.
The Mavericks really aren't that great, as we're going to see tonight and the rest of this series. The truth is, the Lakers got old.
Finally, the Heat, the new Big Three, the rockstars, the "what is wrong with the NBA" team of the moment, beat a still competent Celtics team in five games. Both teams have a boatload of All-Stars and terrible benches. Neither team could possibly win the title this season. The Heat are the worst team left standing. The Celtics of the past three years would have beaten them. You know what that says to me?
The Celtics: OLD!
So when people say this has been the most unpredictable playoffs in recent memory, they're right. But they're not that right. In March I got to see the Thunder hammer the Wizards in Verizon Center. I told my friend who came to the game with me: "you just watched the 2011 NBA Champions." He told me there was no way the Spurs or Lakers wouldn't win. He clearly forgot that those teams are old.
The weird thing is, I still believe the Thunder will win the title, in spite of the fact that Russell Westbrook has devolved into a bad version of Dwayne Wade. In March, he was the best guard in basketball, and I don't think it was that close. Sure, Derrick Rose won the MVP and Dwayne Wade has been incredible, but Westbrook was transcendent in March.
In spite of Westbrook's regression, the Thunder still only lost Game 1 on the road by nine on a night when their coaching staff forgot to come to the arena. The plan to single Nowitzki and force him to win on his own will work over seven games, but with Joey Crawford refereeing and calling an enormous number of fouls, it's up to coaches to adjust to those conditions. If Dallas wins this series, it'll be because Carlisle badly outcoached Brooks. But the real reason the Thunder will win the series? The Mavericks are prehistorically old. They're actually the oldest team in the entire NBA by average age.
And forget about the East winner beating either team. The Bulls were exposed last night for what they are: strong defensively, broken offensively. The Heat will be run off the floor by either West bench, and truthfully, it's doubtful they can even beat the Bulls anyway.
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