Home Runs in the PED era

As you are undoubtedly aware, for the past six years, a series of discoveries concerning steroids and HGH in baseball has led to a witch-hunt concerning some infamous sluggers of the nineties, most notably Barry Bonds, Mark McGuire, Sammy Sosa, and Rafael Palmeiro. This had led to debate, mainly from talking heads on ESPN (because the good Lord knows my friends stopped watching baseball in 1994, and I pretty much went it alone after that) about whether or not these players' numbers should be eliminated from the record book, or potentially asterisked. As with most things, the solution to this problem is mind-numbingly simple:

Take the homerun totals of the players' years of suspicion, and multiply those totals by 80 percent.

Read that again: Take the homerun totals of the players' years of suspicion, and multiply those totals by 80 percent. Now I'm sure you're thinking "wait a minute, that's just too easy, why hasn't anyone ever thought of that before?" The short answer - the sabermetricians that have essentially ruined baseball for the casual fan can't monetize a formula this simple. If it's too difficult for the casual fan to understand, it holds mystery, which causes us to follow these fools and bow to their incredible "knowledge". These guys know as much about hitting a baseball as I do...

Ta-da! Look at all the problems we solve!

1. Roger Maris gets his single season HR record back, as this extremely basic adjustment takes Barry Bonds' HR tally in 2001 from 73 down to 58, and Mark McGuire's 70 in 1998 becomes 56. I've always thought it barbarically stupid that anyone that watches sports could think that anything is more difficult than hitting major league pitching. I have zero-athletic ability whatsoever and I can still shoot a jump shot, hit a fairway (not often but it does happen), or run a fade route. Hell, when the Johnson City, TN police department decided to stick one of those dumb "Your speed is..." radar gun signs in front of my parents' house a couple years back, I managed to hit 17 mph running (I'm aware that's slow, but it's still faster than Michael Smith when he embarrassed himself "racing" Chris Johnson on E:60 last week). If I owned the Cleveland Indians like the lady in Major League, and decided that it would behoove me to play an entire 162 game season in the major leagues, my batting average would be .000. I simply would not be able to get a hit. The sport requires skill and reflexes that no amount of HGH is going to provide. Eliminating the homeruns entirely seems incredibly irresponsible, as it's not like these guys weren't participating in a high skill activity. Plus, it's not like the pitchers weren't juicing. So let's stop pretending the homeruns didn't happen, and adjust the numbers slightly to give the fair record holder his due.

2. Hank Aaron gets his career HR record back. as Barry Bonds obviously loses a bunch of his late-career homeruns. Let's face it, both Maris' and Aaron's broken records are sacred marks that should be preserved, as both of these records were achieved in the face of undue adversity unrelated to the game of baseball. Maris was persecuted because he was not considered the best player on his own team, he set the record in an expansion season, and he was lousy with the New York media. These are all pretty stupid reasons for belittling such an accomplishment, and the poor guy deserved better. As for Hank Aaron, his record came thanks to an unusually long period as one of the game's best hitters. The racism he faced both at the beginning of his career as a black minor leaguer in the South, and late in his career when approaching Babe Ruth's career mark of 714 home runs was incredible and shouldn't be forgotten. We all agree that Aaron is a class act and deserves the record more than Bonds, and this adjustment gives it back to him.

3. It penalizes the steroid users, but it doesn't irresponsibly eliminate them from the Hall of Fame discussion. There is a tendency in the media to refer to the huge numbers of homeruns that came from the PED era as "tainted". The purpose of this exercise is to "taint" the homeruns so that we can still make comparisons and have intelligent discussions about Hall of Fame players. Below is the current top 10 list of career homerun hitters, with suspected juicers in red and homeruns unadjusted, plus the rest of the suspected or known juicers and non-suspected players from the steroid era in the top 20:

1. Barry Bonds 762
2. Hank Aaron 755
3. Babe Ruth 714
4. Willie Mays 660
5. Ken Griffey, Jr. 630
6. Sammy Sosa 609
7. Alex Rodriguez 599
8. Frank Robinson 586
9. Mark McGuire 583
10. Jim Thome 576
12. Rafael Palmeiro 569
14. Manny Ramirez 554
18. Frank Thomas 521


So obviously at this point it's time to adjust the homeruns and remake the list. But before we do, there's one glaring problem looking at this list - why exactly have we absolved Griffey, Thome, and Thomas from cheating, besides the fact that none of them have ever been associated with any ties to PEDs? With Griffey, his injury problems and relatively light physique make it hard to believe he ever cheated. Thome is an enormous man who could have gone either way, but his career follows a traditional arc, where he peaked from ages 29-32, with no enormous power surge, so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Frank Thomas was built like an NFL defensive end, and his vocal pointing of the finger at his contemporaries for their cheating smells like a rat to me. But he's not even in the top 15, so it's almost irrelevant to include him in the witch hunt anyway. This leaves six players to adjust.

Barry Bonds: The most egregious and infamous abuser of baseball's moronic steroid policies of his era, Bonds is still without a doubt the best player of his era, and should be an absolute first-ballot Hall of Famer. The dirty period of Bonds' career is the easiest to spot amongst the six juicers. In 1998, when Sosa and McGuire were exchanging awkward man hugs and taking a huge dump on the Maris family, Bonds posted a "forgettable" .303-37-122, with 130 walks, 28 steals, and an OPS of 1.047 (which is really, really good). The man wasn't just trying to get it done without cheating, he WAS getting it done without cheating, and no one cared, then or now. He was EIGHTH in the NL MVP voting with a season that could have won the award both before and after the steroid era. It's no damn wonder the guy cheated, and it's a shame he had to in order to remain the game's best player. Taking this into consideration, it makes total sense that he was an absolute dick to everyone around him, which didn't help his cause. Looking at his numbers, it makes sense to accuse Bonds of PED use in the seasons from 1999 to 2004, as injuries and a subsequent drop in production coupled with increased awareness of PED use in baseball starting with the 2005 season make it unlikely he was continuing to juice at that point. So:

Year HR AdjHR
1999 34 27
2000 49 39
2001 73 58
2002 46 37
2003 45 36
2004 45 36
Total 292 233

762 - (292-233) = 703

This seems about right, and puts him comfortably behind Aaron and Ruth, and comfortably ahead of his godfather, the great Willie Mays, while preserving his status as an all-time great and the best player from this era of baseball. Third all-time is a very reasonable expectation for Bonds if the PED era never occurred, and that's where I consider him to actually be.

Sammy Sosa: the man who forgot English. What a con-artist this guy turned out to be. At least Bonds managed seven consecutive 33 HR seasons before he had to start juicing, in no small part because of this idiot. Thankfully, this means he loses the most homeruns from the 80% idea, as he happens to be the guy that juiced predominantly in his prime. Sosa became an all-star caliber player in 1993 when he managed the first of his two 30-30 seasons. The second 30-30 season in 1995 was particularly impressive as he managed the feat in only 144 games, which was every game in a strike-shortened season. My point is, he was a fleet footed, balanced, natural superstar in the making. Then, in 1996, he goes 40-18 in only 124 games? If that doesn't scream "unnatural change in body chemistry", then I don't know why you're still reading this long-ass hypothetical blog post. In 1997, he plays the entire 162 games and hits "only" 36 HR, but this has less to do with PEDs and more to do with striking out 174 times in a season with only 161 hits, which looks like a slump to me, not evidence he wasn't juicing.

Then, his golden era arrives in 1998-2002, where he posts the best 5 year HR stretch of all time. 66, 63, 50, 64, 49. Thank god we're taking 20 percent of all of those away, because that's just ridiculous. The most insane thing about that stretch - the 66 in 1998, the 63 in 1999, and the 64 in 2001 all failed to lead the National League thanks to McGuire and Bonds.

Age and injuries reduce his season totals to 40 in 2003 and 35 in 2004, but in those seasons he still posts a HR every 13 at bats, which is legendary, and thus suspect. Therefore we assume he juiced from the seasons 1996-2004, the longest stretch of anybody on this list:

Year HR AdjHR
1996 40 32
1997 36 29
1998 66 53
1999 63 50
2000 50 40
2001 64 51
2002 49 39
2003 40 32
2004 35 28
Total 443 354

609 - (443-354) = 520

That's one less homerun than Ted Williams, Frank Thomas, and Willie McCovey. Sounds about right to me. It's also enough of a deduction to keep the guy out of the Hall of Fame, as he shouldn't be there. He turned himself from a multi-tooled, versatile outfielder into a one-dimensional home run machine that struck out a lot, and didn't do it naturally. Obviously he made more money that way, but he can't seriously be considered a Hall of Famer.

Alex Rodriguez: the most important name on this list, as he stands a fair chance of passing everyone even with adjusted numbers. A-Rod has admitted to using PEDs from 2001-2003, his years with the Texas Rangers, as he felt great pressure to deliver huge numbers as a result of signing the biggest contract in pro sports at the time, a 10 year doozy worth at least $250 million. Judging by the numbers, that sounds reasonable. He led the American League in homeruns all three of those seasons, posting 52, 57, and 47 in those years. He then was traded to the Yankees and his numbers dipped considerably in the following years in spite of those years being his prime years (age 28-30). This was explained at the time as an inability to handle the pressure of the New York spotlight, but adjusting to a lack of PEDs makes infinitely more sense in retrospect. Then, at age 31, he blasted 54 HRs seemingly out of nowhere. These things happen, and for it to happen once for an all-time great I'm willing to accept. So I accept that A-Rod's PED use ended in 2003.

What I don't accept is that he started PED use for the 2001 season. The game changed in 1998 with the McGuire/Sosa chase, and I suspect that A-Rod began using starting with the 1999 season. In 1998, A-Rod led the American League in hits and had the third 40-40 season in major league history. Even I didn't know this before I looked it up, that's how obscured it was by SI's 1998 "Sportsmen of the Year", McGuire and Sosa. Much like Barry Bonds, A-Rod gets no credit for having an MVP caliber 1998 season. Thus, it makes the most sense that he would have began PED usage for the 1999 season and continued it through the 2003 season. In 1999 A-Rod's HR per at bat jumped from 1 per 16.2 in 1998 to 1 per 11.9 in 1999, while his stolen bases drop from 46 in 161 games to 21 in 129, an enormous drop. Thus, I argue he juiced from 1999-2003, not the previously admitted 2001-2003. Thus his adjustment reads:

Year HR AdjHR
1999 42 34
2000 41 33
2001 52 42
2002 57 46
2003 47 38
Total 239 193

599 - (239-193) = 553

Those 46 missing homeruns mean he has to finish his career with 802 homeruns in order for me to consider him the home run king, with 801 putting him into a tie with Hank Aaron. I don't know if he can get to 802, but that's what he has to do to convince me he's the all-time leader. I also like that at age 34 he's already surpassed Sosa and McGuire, the two jackasses most responsible for this mess. By adjusting him this way, his career still has great relevance, and we can handicap him enough to not celebrate 763 if he gets there. 802 is such a gaudy number that if he gets there, he would undoubtedly deserve the top spot.

Mark McGuire: In his comments concerning his juicing, he admitted that he turned to PEDs initially because he was having difficulty returning from injury and he need help to get back on the field. It's hard to blame a guy for doing that when the option was there. McGuire managed to only play in 74 games total in 1993-1994, and looked finished, so it's obvious when reading between the lines that he began juicing for the 1995 season, and did not stop until his career ended in 2001. During that time he homered once every 8.24 at bats.

Once every 8.24 at bats. I've seen Home Run Derbies with lousier production and this guy was hitting people that were trying to get him out. Obviously, he has to be adjusted just like everyone else that juiced, but that's still a ridiculous number to read. Anyway, his adjustment:

Year HR AdjHR
1995 39 31
1996 52 42
1997 58 46
1998 70 56
1999 65 52
2000 32 26
2001 29 23
Total 345 276

583 - (345-276) = 514

But wait. Didn't Jose Canseco (whose adjustment consists solely of multiplying 462 by .8, thus making him the easiest person to play this game with, and giving him the biggest penalty of anyone, including Sammy Sosa) claim that McGuire juiced with him when they were teammates? Canseco left the Oakland A's in 1992, putting McGuire's entire early career under scrutiny as well. McGuire hit 49 HRs as a rookie in 1987, then didn't top that until 1996. In fact, McGuire's batting average from 1989-1991 was so bad that 28 percent of his hits were homeruns during that period (94 of 333). Either he was the worst hitter in baseball (which I doubt, as he's now a major league batting coach) or he wasn't juicing then. There's just not a lot of statistical anomaly to suggest that he got a boost from PEDs in his early career. Maybe he was taking them, but they weren't working, so what's the problem? Regardless, I think this does enough damage to his case to keep him out of the Hall of Fame, as without the gaudy HR totals he was just an average player, even worse than Sosa. With this adjustment he falls behind Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, and Rafael Palmeiro into the Fred McGriff tier of first basemen.

Rafael Palmeiro. I have no idea which years you would consider suspicious when talking about ol' Raffy, as I barely even remember him as a player. From 1995-2003 he hit at least 38 HRs EVERY YEAR, and he was age 30-38 for this stretch, which is late prime to past prime, so that probably should be something of a red flag. His career batting average is .288, which is favorable, and he had more walks than strikeouts for his career, joining Bonds as the only members of this discussion to pull that off, so he obviously was a very good hitter. His HR per AB rate is not gaudy, as he was a very durable player. Also, he is the only player in this discussion with 3000 hits, and I had no idea that was the case either. My theory is, he used PEDs later in his career to maintain bat speed, Of course, I have no idea, I don't remember him. At all. I remember a great mustache, and that's it. So let's assume he started at age 33 when his athletic prime was over, which not so shockingly occurred in, you guessed it, 1998.

Year HR AdjHR
1998 43 34
1999 47 38
2000 39 31
2001 47 38
2002 43 34
2003 38 30

I ended it in 2003 for two reasons. First, his numbers dropped significantly in 2004. Second, he left Texas and A-Rod after the 2003 season so his PED contacts may have dried up. Wait, what am I saying? He couldn't find drugs in Baltimore? Naaaaa.

2004 23 18
Total 280 223

569 - (280-223) = 512

3000 hits and 500 HRs is a Hall of Famer. Every time. This brings up something though.

What effects should adjusted HRs have across the rest of the stat sheet?

Well, I figure that runs are a part of the final score, and thus the outcome of the games that were played, and we aren't scratching that from the books are we? We're just trying to compare the era of PEDs with the rest of the history of baseball, so that we can more objectively decide who gets into the Hall of Fame, and can stop with this "he cheated once so he can't get in" baloney that the media has jammed down our throats for the past 5 years. You know, the same media that looked the other way when it was obviously happening in the first place. So the solution I came up with, like most good solutions, is very simple.

Adjusted HRs count as singles.

This solves two problems. First, it allows us to keep on base percentages, batting averages, and hits intact, so Raffy still has his 3000 hits. Second, it allows us to basically keep RBI the same, only we take one RBI away for each HR we take away, and assume the runner eventually scores. Because advanced stats have basically thrown away the RBI, there is no problem doing this either, and we can subtract the same number of RBI as we do HR, which is a little skewed, but the only people that care about that are the sabermetricians, who only want to nitpick anyway. The only stat that is significantly affected is slugging, and by virtue, OPS. Fortunately, this is a pretty simple recalculation that allows for post-PED season comparison. Barry Bonds provides the best example, as he has the both the best OPS in clean years and in PED years. In 1998 Bonds put up a 1.047 OPS as described earlier. This is derived by adding his .438 on base percentage with his .609 slugging. In 2001, his 73 HR year, he has a .515 on base percentage and slugged .863, for a 1.379 OPS. If you adjust his 73 HRs to 58, you turn 15 HRs into singles, which changes his slugging percentage from .863 to .768, thus changing his OPS to 1.284. So the impact on OPS through this adjustment is tangible, but hardly catastrophic.

Manny Ramirez: Like Raffy, it's hard to know when he started juicing, but we do know that he served a suspension in 2009 for "human chorionic gonadtropin," which is supposed to make your ovaries rumble. Or something. Thus, unlike the rest of these guys, we have to take his juice period through 2009, which is going to do some serious damage. Manny was also on the infamous list of 104 players that tested positive for PEDs that wasn't supposed to be leaked from 2003. So by that logic he was definitely juicing in 2003, so we have a seven year period so far. Looking at the numbers, I saw something intriguing. In 1997, Manny hit 26 HR and 40 doubles for an AL pennant winner that also had three players hit 30 HR (Thome, Matt Williams, and David Justice), an absolutely monster lineup. Manny did not need to juice to help a team where he was fourth in the lineup in HRs. The 1998 lineup was significantly crappier, and Manny's numbers jump out like a sore thumb. 45 HRs, 35 doubles. Sounds to me like a guy who got some help. This is troubling because this gives Manny an unprecedented 12 year juice window. He's such a gifted hitter that it's possible that he did it naturally, and he was just entering his prime in 1998, but because it was 1998 it's very difficult to believe that this jump occurred naturally. His slugging jumped in 1999 as his batting average caught up with his new found power, and this laid the foundation for Manny being the best hitter in the American League through his prime.

Year HR AdjHR
1998 45 36
1999 44 35
2000 38 30
2001 41 33
2002 33 26
2003 37 30
2004 43 34
2005 45 36
2006 35 28
2007 20 16
2008 37 30
2009 19 15
Total 437 349

554 - (437-349) = 466

Considering his batting titles, his role on two famous championship teams, and the fact that he's not done and could get to 500 HR post-adjustment, Manny is probably still a Hall of Famer.

I'm aware that this probably isn't the ideal solution. But it's easy to follow, it's easy to calculate, and it has a real purpose. I'm also aware that OPS was invented by sabermetricians. If you feel more strongly about PED usage than I do, feel free to use a different multiplier, as I chose 80 percent because it gives the records back to the pre-PED holders without further belittling the accomplishments of the era.

Baseball-reference.com deserves a huge mention for making this post possible. Great site.

Sucks To Be Me....

Well, near you if you don't live in California, New England, New York, or the DC Metro area. Guess I'm SOL, and I guess you probably are too.

My pre-Preseason Super Bowl winner

Since early February, a puzzling trend has emerged in American professional sports. It appears the number of championships a team can win in a given year is directly proportional to the number of Kardashian sisters the team is dating. This began with Reggie Bush winning the Super Bowl as a member of the “Who Dat” Saints while dating Kim, and continued with Khloe’s husband Lamar taking home another ring with the Lakers a few weeks ago. Until proven otherwise, I have to respect the Kardashian = Champion corollary, heretofore known as the “Gluteus Champious” theorem, and crown the Dallas Cowboys the Super Bowl winners thanks to Miles Austin’s present dalliance with Kim. If they break up at any point during the season, the favorites become the New Orleans Saints, as they were the last team to employ a “BOK” (boyfriend of Kardashian). Football Outsiders have their DVOA ratings, but “Kardashian boyfriends on the roster” is not measured by any official statistics, ultimately rendering said statistics useless.

This will prove to be a very extreme test case for the Gluteus Champious theorem, as the Cowboys are led by an erratic choke artist/fantasy savant in quarterback Tony Romo, and an ultra-conservative, ultra-stoic head coach Wade Phillips (who in fact, is so boring I could not find one video entertaining enough to link to). Combined, these two have managed to win nothing, and lose via upset a whole lot. However, this season that will all change. Or at the very least, this improbable mash of pop culture and sports can finally be put to rest.

Adventures in YouTube

So today I decided to write my pre-Preseason Super Bowl prediction, and while doing a bit of “research” concerning my favorite team, the Tennessee Titans (who by the way are not my pre-Preseason Super Bowl pick), I discovered a troubling trend on a site we all know and love, YouTube.

As part of this piece I tried to find out who hit Chris Johnson on the play that took him out of the divisional playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens in the 2008-09 playoffs, as I couldn’t remember (I watched that game on a crap TV in a dive hotel in New Orleans, and was completely hammered by the middle of the second quarter, so bear with me). When I went to YouTube to see if I could find video evidence of the hit, I was delighted to see that a bunch of dorks had bombarded YouTube with clips of their Titans-Ravens matchups on Madden. Seriously, no one wants to watch your video game memories, not even you. The only video game clips that are acceptable are the speed Mario clips from talented dorks in Japan, or the kid that simultaneously worked a Rubik’s Cube while beating Mr. Crowley on Guitar Hero. Now THAT’S entertainment.

So naturally I click on a link that said “Baltimore Ravens fans take over in Nashville Tennessee and beat the Titans in the playoff game,” thinking it might have the hit that knocked Johnson out of the game. Nope, it was just four drunken idiots “rioting” outside LP Field. I haven’t read the Riot Act lately, but I don’t think four people yelling and pumping their fists qualifies as a riot. Also, I would love to see these jackasses actually try to “beat the Titans in the playoff game”. It would be acceptable penance for releasing such a sucky video onto the unsuspecting public.

Another odd thing I noticed was the surprising percentage of videos that consisted solely of a fat guy on a couch wearing a jersey providing his picks for that weekend’s playoff games. If you’re looking for people to watch your videos, you need to find a hot girl to read this stuff, it can still be your pick opinions and you can even introduce the girl. The point is, we have enough unattractive people in our lives. We don’t need one more.

So I eventually find a comprehensive reel of highlights from the game. As for the hit that knocked Johnson out of the game? Not included. The most important play of that game and it’s not even mentioned. Sports media, everybody! I still have no idea who made that hit.

The origin of Wine Farts

So, as you might be aware, the economy fell into the toilet and has pretty much stayed there for the past three years, which has caused unemployment to reach double digit percentages. While at first the effects of this so called "economic downturn" did not impact me much, over time I ended up a part of the unemployed masses for reasons too boring to discuss. Thus, I have been forced to find alternate sources of libation from my typical, expensive favorite drink, beer. I know what you're thinking - "isn't beer typically cheaper than wine," or alternately, "this guy is a moron". I agree on both counts. However, the beer I drink isn't the can swill manufactured by huge multinational corporations that make funny ads around Super Bowl time to appeal to ex-jocks named Bubba (not that there's anything wrong with that). No, my tastes are highly refined, and I'm forced to spend nearly two dollars a bottle on beer! Two dollars a bottle! How is a broke person supposed to afford that?

So naturally a few months back I'm wandering around the grocery store aimlessly like one of the Dawn of the Dead zombies and I see that you can buy big bottles of high powered Merlot (I'm talking 14% ABV, or like 4 times Miller Lite) for uber cheap. This excited me greatly, so I walked over to the Credit Union, took out a personal loan, and took a few of these bad boys back to my 1993 Toyota Previa van for rapid consumption. It went down, albeit not very smoothly. OK, it's far from tasty, but in a pinch, it got the job done.

The next morning, I woke up to what smelled like a cross between sulfur, marsh water, nacho cheese, and blood. None of these things were in the van, so you can imagine my initial confusion. I got out of the van and started searching for clues, when I suddenly started farting uncontrollably (I’m sure you’re beginning to think I’m providing way too much information but I swear there’s a method to this madness). The smell from the van emerged, and I immediately knew that the smell was in fact a result of my one-man debauchery from the night before.

The smell was so awful that I decided that all things in this world that stink, whether they be Albert Haynesworth’s handling of being moved to nose tackle, Lindsay Lohan’s rehab attempts, Tim Sylvia, beach port-a-johns, Korean food, all seasons of 24 after Jack is sent to China, and of course, LeBron’s decision, can be characterized as being Wine Farts. Sitting back and whining about these things doesn’t make them go away or change them in any way, so I figure I might as well have some fun with them. Kind of like I had some fun with the wine before my body turned it into farts. Really stinky farts.